We give traders and investors quantitative trading edges that allow them to extract alpha from the markets. By putting historical probabilities and patterns to use, the trader achieves a statistical edge from which they can put their capital at risk with confidence that, over time, they will extract profits. If used properly with appropriate position sizing and risk management, our tools will make you a profitable trader.
ProbableTrades.com was founded by Scott Hodson, a long time invdividual investor and trader. Mr. Hodson has been trading stocks, options, and futures markets since 1994. He has been through "the journey" and paid the "tuition" that is typical with many new traders still struggling to find a profitable way to trade. With the help of trading mentors and market professionals, coupled with countless hours of research and testing, Mr. Hodson has been systematically and automatically trading his personal accounts profitably for years.
During his journey to find the right way to trade, he was often discouraged to run into shady marketers and hucksters playing on people's sense of greed to make "easy" money and promises of getting rich quick. Some would even promote "high probability" trading methods, but could never back up their claims with any actual statistical probabilities. Others would promise 80-90% winning trades, but hide the fact that the few times you lose money costs more than all of the small but frequent profits earned, so they could never be consistently profitable. He then found some traders that mentored him how to trade with actual probabilities and positive expectancy trading models that, if followed with discipline, will generate long-term profits.
Once he learned to trade with this sort of mindset, he developed systems of his own that would match this type of trading. The last remaining challenge was to conquer his emotional reaction to the ups and downs of trading this way, not to panic in draw-downs, nor get lazy or over-confident during the good times. He continues a never-ending quest to create as many profitable trading systems and methods so that he can diversify his risk exposure with a portfolio of trading systems that are adaptable to ever-changing market conditions.
Born and raised in Silicon Valley and having programmed computers since the age of ten, Mr. Hodson went on to earn Bachelors and Masters degrees in Computer Science. He uses his sense for algorithmic problem solving to build the trading systems he uses today and continues researching more ways to quantitatively put the odds in his favor.
Mr. Hodson has a passion for teaching and helping others learn, and has taught and mentored hundreds of traders through trading Meetups in Southern California since 2009. It was during these years that he felt he could see the struggles others have with trading and wanted to create a broader platform where he could educate traders about how to trade. This is how ProbableTrades.com was born.